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There is a chance. If things go perfectly, we never throw a yellow, people behave, cars don't have mechanicals, animals stay away, the timing and scoring works perfectly, all the officials do everything perfectly, and the organizers don't forget anything.
We also have to consider how many cars start, which we don't know yet. If we have 90 cars start each day, then there is a lot lower chance of five, never mind six, runs. If we have 80 cars actually start, then five is likely and six a possibility.
60 cars @ 3 runs = 180 runs/day (last year).
70 cars @ 3 runs = 210 runs/day (what we expected).
80 cars @ 3 runs = 240 runs/day (about the limit for 3)
90 cars @ 3 runs = 270 runs/day (what we have now).
Sorry, but 270 into 180 just isn't likely to happen, even if everything is perfect, IMHO. We'll have to see how the registrations shape up.
People have to remember that the number of cars on the track is not the biggest thing; there are big gains in the number of groups each session can be divided into. For example, with 45 cars in a session, you have:
3 groups with 15 cars on track;
4 groups with 14 cars;
4 groups with 13 cars;
4 groups with 12 cars;
5 groups with 11 cars;
5 groups with 10 cars;
5 groups with 9 cars;
6 groups with 8 cars ....
So, in the above scenario, we want to start at 9 cars at once, and work towards 12, but going beyond that only pays off big at 15 cars, and 15 cars may not work too well.
The biggest preventable time killer will be yellow flags.Yellows destroy time on a long track, and 15 cars is a lot of cars that need to avoid catching up to each other. Twelve is much more manageable.
As for registration, note that we said "targeted," not "coming." We also have to leave time for mail entries, so a final number will not be announced until later this week.
Currently, we are in the mid-80's in terms of paid registrations.
(The budget breakpoint for transponders was in the mid 90's. If we had 100 advance registrations, then we would be talking of many different things ... )
(The budget breakpoint for transponders was in the mid 90's. If we had 100 advance registrations, then we would be talking of many different things ... )
I haven't been to a National; does the above mention of transponders mean we are using them for the Calabogie event?
I haven't been to a National; does the above mention of transponders mean we are using them for the Calabogie event?
No, it means that if a lot more people had registered, and registered earlier, then we would have used transponders (which might have allowed for more runs).
The big difference with the Nationals is Impound procedure. This will be explained in the supps (to be posted tomorrow).
Note to experienced competitors: if you don't follow impound procedure, then you lose.
Even if I get only 5 timed laps, I want to be part of a 100 racer Solosprint event.
Three timed laps per session, with five sessions, that is six laps Saturday and nine on Sunday.
Then again, I thought 15 cars + on a "big a$$" track like calabogie was doable!! I may be too optimistic!
It is physically doable; the question is how many yellows are going to come out. At 15, there are 25% more cars out then at 12. A yellow takes at least 25% longer to un-sort, and is, all things being equal, 25% more likely with 15 than 12. If we get one extra big yellow with 15 over 12, then all the advantage of 15 over 12 is lost.
So, if all the competitors warm-up and cool-down quickly and evenly so that there are a minimum of yellows, then it is possible. Plus, if we run groups back-to-back, we have less changeovers. (Back-to-back means half the competitors lap and run in the morning; the other half lap and run in the afternoon. On the next day, we reverse groups, shorten the lapping to a warm-up, and see what happens.)
Currently 89 entries, 57 for Friday.
P.S. Adam, you are a pessimist. You're agreeing with my thinking.
Craig said "If things go perfectly, we never throw a yellow, people behave, cars don't have mechanicals, animals stay away, the timing and scoring works perfectly, all the officials do everything perfectly, and the organizers don't forget anything."
..... some say I'm a bit of an animal and I know I'm an imperfect
official. Geez, your putting me on the spot
Craig said "If things go perfectly, we never throw a yellow, people behave, cars don't have mechanicals, animals stay away, the timing and scoring works perfectly, all the officials do everything perfectly, and the organizers don't forget anything."
..... some say I'm a bit of an animal and I know I'm an imperfect
official. Geez, your putting me on the spot
Forgot to add ... those are listed in probability of occuring, most likely to least likely ...
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